Home Price Growth Slowed Down. That May Be Changing.
July 2026
After more than a year of headlines talking about how home prices are going to crash, the latest data shows that price growth may be starting to pick back up again. And depending on whether you’re buying or selling, that shift means something different for you.
The Numbers May Be Starting To Turn
For the past couple of years, home price growth has been moderating – cooling from around 7% in mid-2024, according to Redfin (see graph below). But look at the right side of that graph. The pace of that growth appears to have hit its low point and started to turn.
While a couple months of data doesn’t necessarily mean this will be a lasting trend, there are some other signs that this could continue.
For example, fewer markets are seeing prices decline. According to ResiClub and Zillow, about 36% of the 300 largest housing markets had falling prices as of the middle of last year. Since the start of this year, that share has been shrinking. Now? Only 23% are experiencing those mild dips (see graph below):
When fewer markets see prices falling, that means more markets are seeing prices rise again.
And forecasts suggest this shift has room to run. On average, experts project home prices will rise about 2.3% nationally this year. And for that to happen, price growth would have to pick up a bit in the second half of 2026.
But Remember, Real Estate Is Local
While it looks like national prices may be starting to pick back up a tiny bit, that doesn’t mean that’s what’s happening in your neighborhood.
National home prices are really just an average of hundreds of local markets. Some are climbing faster. Others are still cooling. But one reason the national average may be looking up is because a growing number of metros may actually be net positive for prices this year.
Not long ago, the major metros were split about 50/50 – half seeing prices rise and half seeing them fall. Now, that balance looks like it’s starting to tip in a more positive direction. Just last month, more than half of the major metros saw prices go up, according to Redfin (see graph below):
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Disclaimer: The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. The Kathy Schmitt Team does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. The Kathy Schmitt Team will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.
